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Just as putting together a Halloween getup can serve as a means of letting off a little steam during times of economic uncertainty—as it was last year, when consumer spent nearly $6 billion on candy and costumes, according to the National Retail Federation—so it’s also a way of celebrating at fairly low cost when things start to (faintly) recover. Put another way, American may need incentives such as the Cash for Clunkers program to spur investment in big-ticket items, the annual Halloween ritual is more reliable, year in and year out.

“Whether they host their own party or hit the streets trick-or-treating with their children, consumers want Halloween costumes to reflect their creativity,” Phil Rist, vice president of strategy at BIGresearch, said last October when the NRF’s yearly consumer survey of costume choices was published. It’s that creative spark that can lead shoppers to army/navy stores who promote the holiday.

Trick-or-treating and army/navy stores are a logical combination. For as long as the idea of putting together a costume with a little imagination has appealed to kids, parents and young adults, the army/navy store has been a resource. It’s easy to figure out why. The army/navy store is a trove of clothing items that can be adapted to hundreds of Halloween costume ideas, often at low price points.

How to zero in on what your customers will be wearing to bob for apples? Keep an eye on the screen, big and small. “Hollywood has tremendous influence over what adults, children and even pets wear on Halloween,” Tracy Mullin, NRF president and CEO, said in 2008. And while the specific movie- and TV-influenced costume choices that dotted last year’s survey may be passé in 2009, the reliability of Mullin’s observation hasn’t dated.

This year, expect to see a lot of vampires, thanks to the popularity of the Twilight movies and the True Blood series on cable TV. A couple of less alluring monsters—the bogeymen from the Halloween and Friday the 13th franchises—returned to the big screen this year, and baggy sweatshirts, work pants and heavy boots comprise much of their wardrobes.

In the sci-fi realm, the futuristic soldiers and pilots of the Battlestar Galactica series, which ended its run on cable earlier this year, wore uniforms that didn’t look all that far removed from what active-duty personnel wear today. And Star Wars costumes remain perennially popular, even if the most recent movie in the series is already four years old. A surplus flight suit and helmet can be the basis of the uniform of a Rebel pilot, while a cyalume lightstick can serve as a lightsaber after it’s been fitted with a homemade hilt.

The quasi-military/quasi-police costumes of the NCIS cast may also represent a theme, as the show has become the most popular on TV. The soldier of 60 years ago might become a focal point of military-themed Halloween costumes if the much-hyped Brad Pitt World War II adventure/spoof Inglourious Basterds turns out to be a smash hit.

YOUNG AT HEART

Halloween is the sixth biggest holiday of the year for retail sales, according to the NRF, ranging behind only the winter holidays, Valentine’s Day, Easter, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day. Although the NRF hasn’t yet released this year’s results for its annual Halloween Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, last year saw 64.5% of respondents planning to celebrate the holiday. The biggest-spending demographic group, perhaps surprisingly, isn’t parents but young adults ages 18 to 24, who last year planned to spend well above the per-capita average of $66.54. Their importance to army/navy stores, and their enthusiasm for popular culture, don’t need to be explained here.

Although the most popular Halloween activity among respondents was handing out candy, 35.3% of the 2008 survey respondents said they planned to dress in costume. One-third said they planned to take children trick or treating, and 31.1% had plans to throw or attend a party. That bodes well for retailers who call attention to their Halloween selections.

Although some costume choices are more up-to-the-minute, a good number of children and adults prefer “classic” themes that carry over from year to year. Both ends of the age spectrum favor dressing up as princesses, witches or pirates, for example.

For the army/navy retailer, the idea is to help customers translate what the store already carries into Halloween ideas, rather than bring in licensed designs that could be found at costume rental stores or the big chain discounters. That means no off-the-rack, cheap-looking Superman costumes, although one scenario for a child to dress like the Man of Steel involves a couple of items that could come from your store: a blue sweatshirt and blue sweatpants, along with a pair of children’s-sized snow boots.