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The bad dream lingers on, in the form of a recession that just doesn’t know how to quit us. And like a dream, fits and starts of recovery seem to be apparitions, visible one moment, spirited away the next.
We are frustrated by jobless claims that unexpectedly spike or dip, stocks that soar one day, plummet a day later and consumer confidence numbers that seem more like a confidence game.
In this cauldron of quiet desperation we find ourselves simmering as an industry, waiting for the siren to sound the all-clear.
NAYSAYING
The core of the problem seems to be a nagging suspicion among many of us that a good percentage of the jobs lost during the worst of the recession are not coming back; that another deep recession may be lurking behind corporate and banking boardroom doors; that another wave of foreclosures may be cresting soon; and that those who do re-enter the realm of the employed will do so at a significantly lower pay grade that nullifies their ability to prime the economic pump with discretionary spending.
Fortunately our industry enjoys a history of resilience and positive public opinion during hard economic times. Retailers who have been successful at identifying and stocking value-laden products that their customers need, and just as importantly, getting that message out to their communities have thrived during these difficult times.
We asked some suppliers and retailers for their best guess as to how 2010 will shape up, or whether it will simply ship out.
YAY-SAYING
“The economy is going to be better,” advises John Ottaviano of Rothco.
He bases this on several uplifting (at least for our industry) factors including a cold, harsh winter in much of the land, the buying public’s growing interest in disaster, survival and emergency products, an increase in GSA business and even the onset of a 2012-Nostradamus end of the world scare.
Ottaviano also claims that 2009 saw the opening of more new army/navy retail stores (a combination of some brick-and-mortar and Internet-bases) than in the previous ten years combined, according to Rothco’s calculations.
“Many new stores are opening, particularly around military bases where they are doing well,” Ottaviano explained.
He advised retailers to continue to position themselves as a value alternative.
“We’re in an hourglass economy. People are buying from the top and from the bottom, not the middle,” he explained.
Jim Gilbertson of Eagle Emblems in Moss Landing, California looks on the sunny side as well.
